Leah O'Donovan

A random smattering of articles, comments and a few opinions of my own for today.

Jonathan Freedland has written an excellent commentary on the Guardian today discussing Obama’s worldwide appeal. He believes – rightly so – that should McCain win in November the recent Bush-specific anti-Americanism could become more permanent and general. While it is fantastic that should Obama win in November he would be instantly welcomed by most of the world’s population, unfortunately, it is not these people who will determine the outcome. If only that were the case this election would be a forgone conclusion. This leads me well to my next offering.

Various recent polls show two distinct changes in the opinion of Americans: one, that white women have shifted to supporting McCain; and two, that McCain overall is beginning to lead. Gary Younge, also from the Guardian, offers several reasons why liberals such as I should not panic about these new polls but also a very good reason to panic.

The three reasons to not panic are that the election was always going to be close; that Obama is a late finisher and trailed Hillary in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina before pulling out a victory; and finally that state polls matter far more than national polls and not only do these show an entirely different picture to the national polls but are often far more accurate. The website Electoral-vote.com accurately projected Bush’s victory over Kerry in 2004 and they are currently projecting an Obama win. While clearly this is not 100% reliable, it is nice to have some polling that is relatively accurate. I might have a different opinion, however, if this poll showed McCain winning.

The reason I see that we do have to panic is something called the Wilder effect. I had not heard of it, which is quite surprising considering I took a course for my BA in Political Science in political opinion polling. It was never mentioned or perhaps I’ve just forgotten it. The Wilder effect shows that many white people will tell a pollster he/she will vote for a black candidate but will not actually do so on election day. They do not wish to appear racist but possibly are. Yes, many people can change their minds up to and on election day but the polling differences that led to this effect being identified were vast. Younge links to a doctoral paper in his article in which the author argues the Wilder effect has not been seen throughout this primary season. Time will tell whether this is true or whether it continues. It is certainly another reason to question any lead Obama gains again between now and election day.

Finally, ladies specifically and readers in general, I have a request. I noticed a writing competition on the Guardian today for their women’s section. The piece should be 1500 words on “any issue that specifically affects women.” I would potentially like to enter this contest. Not only would I relish the idea of writing something that might be published but the £500 prize would certainly be welcome at this point in time. The deadline is 15 October. Does anyone have a suggestion of what I could write on?

I would love to be a writer but I think this example clearly shows why I could not. I find it hard to be told to write on a subject on the spot. I feel somewhat at a loss of what to write about. I certainly have the time to write at the moment so why shouldn’t I try to make something of it. There’s also an essay competition for the Royal United Services Institute for defence and security studies that I would love to enter but don’t think I have nearly enough expertise or time to research “What future for the Democratic Republic of the Congo?”

So that’s today’s assignment. Read the articles I’ve mentioned and give me a topic or two to write about. Any questions? No; good. Get to work then.